Planning From the Future Backward

Planning From the Future Backward

During times of disruption, it has become increasingly important in strategic planning to take account of the impact of likely futures. Organizations must think beyond their cultural comfort zone when confronted with the threat of considerable change. They must face the inevitability of disruptive external forces taking away the luxury of internally- driven and hindsight-focused planning and decision making. Being able to tell stories about how the future could and should be different from the past, and what new behaviors will be needed to achieve that change, is an important competence in moving forward and thriving in the face of change. Planning from the future backward allows organizations to understand the implications of current and future forces acting on them and to create fresh visions of the future.

We employ a four-stage futuring framework.  The first step starts will a review of the forces that are acting on the organization in the current environment, both those that are potentially accelerating change and those that are inhibiting it. We also take into account the peripheral and emerging forces that may not be fully recognizable at the current time. The amount of detail applied to this force analysis can vary greatly. We have run half-day futuring sessions where the current force collection lasts 20 to 30 minutes and we have run long-term environmental scans where we spend weeks or months in detailed research. We’ll talk more about these different approaches later in the article when we explore different examples in greater depth.

The next step in the process is to leap forward to the future. The graphic above shows a 10-year leap, which makes sense for a lot of applications. It is far enough in the future to escape the temptation to merely project or extrapolate current trajectories, but not so far a leap that the future is wholly unimaginable. This time period for the leap forward varies depending on the planning context. When we are considering the future of technologies, we like a shorter time frame because the pace of technological change is rapid and very dynamic. When we are consider more stable, laminar change as we see in building construction or in certain academic disciplines, we prefer a longer time frame. The nature of the forces being considered is a bit different too. Often, we ask that less time be spent on the inventory of forces that are expected to remain largely the same as present day. We seek to spend more time on those forces that are expected to disappear and even more on those that will appear to be new and potentially impactful. We also like to tap into others’ research on future trends to help stimulate thinking and provoke fresh insights.

The third step in the process is to step back, review the forces that emerged in the first two steps and begin to think about and list the implications. We begin with broad, general categories, then proceed to break down the implications into a variety of more specific sub-categories. The most common categorizations are by: 1) organizational function or unit, 2) market segment, 3) business unit or product line, 4) specialized department, 5) existing or legacy programs, or 6) new programs, products or services. Sometimes, we find that certain implications warrant more thorough analyses or extensive scenario building to better understand them. The ultimate goal of this step is to paint pictures of possible futures by forecasting how the forces and implications may converge.

Finally, the fourth step is to plan from the future backward. With a large number of potential futures now better understood, planning can be brought back to today. How do the forces, implications, and possible futures impact the decisions and/or actions that need to be taken now? How about over the next three years? Or over an even a longer planning horizon? The level of detail in this step can vary greatly as well from a quick review of a number of lists and clusters on one end of the spectrum to fully expanded strategic planning on the other. The methodology has great flexibility.

In summary, planning from the future backward enables us to understand the futurity of current decisions, plans and actions. It enables leaders to escape the gravitational pull of existing ideas and assumptions about the inevitable extrapolation of current conditions and trends. Planning from the future backward enables strategic thinkers to establish and follow through on transformative aspirations in response to disruptors and emergent futures, the dimensions of which can be understood through planning from the future backward.

With guest blogger:

Don Norris, Ph.D.

President

www.strategicinitiatives.com

dmn@strategicinitiatives.com